Daily Market Notes July 3, 2009

PSEi                 2,431.34         DOWN    6.70
value php     1,529,901,105.00

DOW 223.32 -2.63% 8,280.74
NASDAQ 49.20 -2.67% 1,796.52
S&P 500 26.91 -2.91% 896.42

Stocks tumbled at the open and remained in the red throughout
the session as investors considered the broader implications of the dismal June jobs report.  Employers cut 467,000 jobs from their payrolls in June, after cutting 322,000 jobs in May, the Labor Department reported Thursday. That made June the first month in four in which job losses rose from the previous month.
Economists surveyed by Briefing.com expected 365,000 job losses.

  That's a 27% more drop than expected.

And yet asiawide, equity markets took it in stride that emanated an aura of "natural correction" and the panic sellling after triple digit losses for the Dow just wasn't there on Asia anymore (or yet).  

Daily Market Notes July 2, 2009

PSEi                 2,438.04         UP      5.15
value php               1,954,009,525.00

DOW 57.06 +0.67% 8,504.06
NASDAQ 10.68 +0.58% 1,845.72
S&P 500 4.01 +0.44% 923.33

Investors moved back into stocks Wednesday after manufacturing and housing reports showed the pace of the contraction in those sectors is easing.  But the over 120 point rally on the dow was pared down again by half.  

So what is happening so far aside from the evident Sell on rally theme worldwide? It also seems that upon hitting 2 week low supports, sellers take a break and stop their selling, but heavy buying do not want to put their money in at those levels either.

Rising Oil: how much of it is caused by actual demand versus speculation only?

Perhaps 60% of oil prices are speculation

Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley today are the two leading energy trading firms in the United States. Citigroup and JP Morgan Chase are major players and numerous hedge funds speculate.

In June 2006, the senate investigation estimated that of oil traded in futures markets at some $60 a barrel, about $25 of that was due to pure financial speculation. One analyst estimated in August 2005 that US oil inventory levels suggested WTI crude prices should be around $25 a barrel, and not $60.

13 market indicators that may dictate stock market trends

Patterns about spending behavior were studied since the dawn of equities, and everything from underwear, to mini skirts, to superbowl were analyzed in terms of consumer behavior.  In particular watch were consumer thriftiness to over extravagance flashiness.

1.Mini skirt hemline indicator

n 1926, economist George Taylor noticed that fluctuating fashion. Like the stock market, the length of many women's dresses also fell with a peculiar synchronicity. Perhaps this hemline index, as Taylor coined it, reflected the grim economy's psychological effect on the public. It wasn't a time for rash celebration and risk taking; instead, the Great Depression called for a return to fiscal modesty.