Not All Days Are Equal One thing that significance will not tell you is whether the information you have just found is worth anything in the practical sense. To find that out, you have to examine and analyze your data. Let’s revisit the table again:Apart from the win:loss ratio, which gives... (more...)

Time and Tide Thus, armed with our Nuts and Bolts, we can easily arrange and rearrange our data to form observations about our experiment. The first thing we can do is figure our exactly how many of our traders made money as a whole:  Read more... (686 words, 12 images, estimated 2:45 mins reading... (more...)

Nuts and Bolts Does Seasonality exist? Can timing your purchases improve returns? Is there really a January Effect? What effect do Ghost Months Have? To answer these questions, we can possibly phrase our hypothesis as: ”Seasonality has an effect on market returns.” However, this is still... (more...)

Asking The Right Question In an earlier post, we described how we can never really prove anything. That fact can be depressing to an investor—who is seeking for a surefire way to beat the market. If anything, the market only serves to disprove any method you throw at it: buying on a breakout leads... (more...)

Introducing The Seasonality Problem Finally, after three posts, I’m finally getting around to the real meat of my title. I had an inkling although very little understanding of The Seasonality Problem when I took my first job as a securities representative-trainee. In our welcoming briefing, our... (more...)

What The Hell Is Your Problem If you haven’t thought about them already, you should know about two depressing truths about finding knowledge: 1. It is impossible to know everything.2. It is impossible to prove anything. Imperfect knowledge and uncertainty are two main obstacles to successful... (more...)

The Alchemy Of Finance A quick look at the FM thread for Pacifica, Inc. (PA)—a stock that has been very volatile and tradable lately—reveals the following ongoing conversation as of the time of this writing:  Read more... (913 words, 8 images, estimated 3:39 mins reading time) Read More →

Bull Market And The Rise of BullSh*t With going on three “major” market crashes as of this writing, the year of 2007 has probably been a roller-coaster ride for most investors in the Philippine Stock Market. I could say the same for the Financemanila forum. Boss D can correct me if I’m... (more...)