Philippine National Bank (PNB)

[Mr. Banker]

Chance to load up again before the 4Q to 1Q 2013 ride. SEC approval will surely be out by then. Approval from PSE also needed Mr. Banker?

Reviewed my notes, didn't find PSE in it, friend Luckypick.

March 27, 2012: The application for approval of the merger was filed with the BSP and PDIC;

April 13, 2012: The application for approval of the merger was filed with the SEC

Ang kupad ng SEC....more than 4 months na. Wala bang FMer na working with PSE?

[pestengehem]

Thanks Mr Banker for the reply. I guess intay lang muna and sana bilisan ng sec.

[BASURERO]

PHILIPPINE NATIONAL BANK – PNB

CURRENT PRICE = PhP 70.00 (as of 082812)


P/E RATIO TEST:

2009 Earnings-per-share = PhP 2.2500
2010 Earnings-per-share = PhP 4.0300
2011 Earnings-per-share = PhP 5.8300
2012 1H Earnings-per-share = PhP 2.6700

Average earnings-per-share (based on the past 3 years and 2 quarters) = PhP 4.3625
Average price earnings ratio (based on the past 3 years and 2 quarters) = 16.05

Benjamin Graham recommends current price no more than 15 times average earnings over the past three years.
This issue passed Graham’s price-earnings ratio test.


PRICE-TO-BOOK RATIO TEST:

Total Equity = PhP 40,279,845,000
Outstanding Shares = 662,245,916
Book-Value per Share = PhP 60.82
Price-to-Book ratio (PB) = 1.15

Graham recommends that current price should not be more than 1.5 times the book value last reported.
This issue passed Graham’s price-to-book ratio test.


NET-WORKING-CAPITAL OR “RARE BARGAIN” TEST:

Current Asset = PhP 262,777,033,000
Total Liabilities = PhP 266,827,172,000
Net Working Capital = PhP (4,050,139,000)
Current Asset to Total Liabilities ratio = 0.98

* By “net-working-capital”, Graham means current assets (such as cash, marketable securities, and inventories) minus total liabilities (including preferred stock and long-term debt).

Current asset is less than the total liabilities.
Graham recommends issues with positive net-working-capital.
This issue “slightly” failed Graham’s net-working-capital or “RARE BARGAIN” test.


GRAHAM’S “BLENDED MULTIPLIER” TEST:

P/E = 16.05
P/B = 1.15
P/E*P/B = 18.47

Graham suggests that the product of P/E and P/B should not exceed 22.5.
This issue passed Graham’s “blended multiplier” test.


LIMITATION OF THE ANALYSIS:

EPS calculation does not isolate “other income” and “extra-ordinary income”.

Analysis does not include earnings stability, dividend records, earnings growth and futures earnings (or forward P/E ratio).

Analysis does not include banking industry’s key performance indicators such as: Return on Average Equity, Return on Average Assets, Capital Adequacy Ratio, Non Performing Loan Ratio, etc..

For future plans and prospects, read below reference.


REFERENCE:
http://www.pse.com.ph/resource/corpt/20 ... un2012.pdf
http://www.pse.com.ph/resource/corpt/20 ... ec2011.pdf

[kakuro]

malapit na ito

[hec]

Based on COL report, approval of SEC is expected to be released within the month..
Kaya lang consensus rating nila is HOLD with FV a 73? DB FV nila as of March 27 is 104? What's your thought guys? Nagkamali lang kaya ang COL nung Mar 27? or binabaan talaga nila yung FV?

Any rating for PNB from other broker?

Thanks

[kendo]

Based on COL report, approval of SEC is expected to be released within the month..
Kaya lang consensus rating nila is HOLD with FV a 73? DB FV nila as of March 27 is 104? What's your thought guys? Nagkamali lang kaya ang COL nung Mar 27? or binabaan talaga nila yung FV?

Any rating for PNB from other broker?

Thanks

wayayay, 73 nalang? sell nako neto, abang nalang sa baba

[jmikery]

Based on COL report, approval of SEC is expected to be released within the month..
Kaya lang consensus rating nila is HOLD with FV a 73? DB FV nila as of March 27 is 104? What's your thought guys? Nagkamali lang kaya ang COL nung Mar 27? or binabaan talaga nila yung FV?

Any rating for PNB from other broker?

Thanks

wayayay, 73 nalang? sell nako neto, abang nalang sa baba

Keep in mind, that is COL. For example, last year, GLO was around 800-900 they had a sell reco with target in the 600s. After a horrible year of service from Globe, it's still at the 1,100s with potential to go up once their infrastructure investment starts to pay off

[Luckypick]

COL research batting average is 50/50 at best if i must say

[Mr. Banker]

Based on COL report, approval of SEC is expected to be released within the month..
Kaya lang consensus rating nila is HOLD with FV a 73? DB FV nila as of March 27 is 104? What's your thought guys? Nagkamali lang kaya ang COL nung Mar 27? or binabaan talaga nila yung FV?

Any rating for PNB from other broker?
Thanks

In their Market Outlook dated Aug 30, 2012, DA Market Securities reported that consensus price for PNB is 73.91. They however added.....” that value per share post merger has since been estimated between P80-P100/share”.

Based on my understanding, COL's FV of 73 is for PNB without merger and their previous 104 is post merger.

I want to believe my understanding...kasi dami me PNB...

[hec]

Based on COL report, approval of SEC is expected to be released within the month..
Kaya lang consensus rating nila is HOLD with FV a 73? DB FV nila as of March 27 is 104? What's your thought guys? Nagkamali lang kaya ang COL nung Mar 27? or binabaan talaga nila yung FV?

Any rating for PNB from other broker?
Thanks

In their Market Outlook dated Aug 30, 2012, DA Market Securities reported that consensus price for PNB is 73.91. They however added.....” that value per share post merger has since been estimated between P80-P100/share”.

Based on my understanding, COL's FV of 73 is for PNB without merger and their previous 104 is post merger.

I want to believe my understanding...kasi dami me PNB...

Thanks for passing by Mr. Banker..

Im also increasing my position in PNB.. ive been following your post, so just like you ill only buy when the price is less than 72... when it go higher, then decision time whether to hold or to sell..

Hopefully tama sinasabi ng SEC na marerelease yung decision nila this month..

[hec]

Based on COL report, approval of SEC is expected to be released within the month..
Kaya lang consensus rating nila is HOLD with FV a 73? DB FV nila as of March 27 is 104? What's your thought guys? Nagkamali lang kaya ang COL nung Mar 27? or binabaan talaga nila yung FV?

Any rating for PNB from other broker?

Thanks

wayayay, 73 nalang? sell nako neto, abang nalang sa baba

Keep in mind, that is COL. For example, last year, GLO was around 800-900 they had a sell reco with target in the 600s. After a horrible year of service from Globe, it's still at the 1,100s with potential to go up once their infrastructure investment starts to pay off

sir, Thanks for your post, you have a point there.. That's one reason kung bakit di ako bumili ng PGOLD when it is selling for P21.. because COL got a lower FV.. but as much as possible, i want to buy those stock na malaki ang gap ng market price to FV...

[rent]

Found this old news: "In the prosecutor’s resolution, it was said that both Lees appear to have used falsified contracts to sell deeds of assignment to induce Philippine National Bank—which filed the complaint—to release various loan proceeds worth about P1 billion".
http://business.inquirer.net/42431/biz- ... -the-guard

[spitzserfun]

Based on COL report, approval of SEC is expected to be released within the month..
Kaya lang consensus rating nila is HOLD with FV a 73? DB FV nila as of March 27 is 104? What's your thought guys? Nagkamali lang kaya ang COL nung Mar 27? or binabaan talaga nila yung FV?

Any rating for PNB from other broker?
Thanks

In their Market Outlook dated Aug 30, 2012, DA Market Securities reported that consensus price for PNB is 73.91. They however added.....” that value per share post merger has since been estimated between P80-P100/share”.

Based on my understanding, COL's FV of 73 is for PNB without merger and their previous 104 is post merger.

I want to believe my understanding...kasi dami me PNB...

I also want to believe that post merger FV should be better than 73. Still holding my PNB shares and waiting for the merger to happen. Hopefully, this is the month it happens.