UBP

[derridamd]

B1900,

The previous major rally of UBP in 2010 was followed by a year-long consolidation. The current consolidation is only 3-month young.

[B1900]

the recent rally had a lot more volume than the previous... i'm hoping the fundies won't wait a year... patience pa rin...

[derridamd]

I added to my UBP hoard @ 100.

Bid @ 95.00 may just be wishful thinking.

[Archimedes]

What's the 2012 TP for UBP? Thanks

Choose your wild...

At conservative 10x forward 2012PE...118.80
At realistic 11x forward 2012PE.........130.68
At optimistic 12x forward 2012PE.......142.56

First quarter earnings is P2.84B which is way ahead of projected full year 2012 earnings of P7.62B.

UBP's first quarter EPS is already 17.73.
10x PE would then be 177.3

Citiseconline's Investment Guide TP for this is 130.70

So there is margin of safety for this at 102. Malaki ang potential pero juan tamad lang kasi, tamad umakyat

[derridamd]

^

Buyers are "juan tamad", just waiting for the fruit to fall at possibly 95 or lower.

[derridamd]

Union Bank income up 42% to P4 B in H1
By Ted Torres (The Philippine Star) Updated July 31, 2012 12:00 AM

The Union Bank of the Philippines has reported a net income of P4-billion in the first six months of 2012, up 42 percent from the P2.86 billion recorded in the same period last year.

http://www.philstar.com/Article.aspx?ar ... egoryId=74

[BASURERO]

I'm expecting a significant volume-price movement tomorrow.

[derridamd]

August 8, 2012 disclosure

Aboitiz Equity Ventures, Inc. bought today a total of Two Million Three Hundred
Thousand (2,300,000) common shares of Union Bank of the Philippines at a price
of P 101.50 per share.

http://www.pse.com.ph/resource/disclosu ... 75_AEV.pdf

[BASURERO]

UNION BANK OF THE PHIL. – UBP

CURRENT PRICE = PhP 102.50


P/E RATIO TEST:

2009 Earnings-per-share = 6.74
2010 Earnings-per-share = 8.35
2011 Earnings-per-share = 10.28
2012 1H Earnings-per-share = 12.68

Average earnings-per-share (based on the past 3 years and 2 quarters) = 12.682500000
Average price earnings ratio (based on the past 3 years and 2 quarters) = 8.08

This company has low P/E ratio.
Graham recommends current price no more than 15 times average earnings over the past three years.


PRICE-TO-BOOK RATIO TEST:

Total Equity = PhP 43,335,277,000
Outstanding Shares = 641,422,420
Book-Value per Share = PhP 67.56
Price-to-Book ratio (PB) = 1.52

Current price should not be more than 1.5 times the book value last reported.
This company has slightly high price-to-book ratio.
This issue slightly failed Benjamin Graham’s price-to-book ratio test.


NET-WORKING-CAPITAL TEST:

Current Asset = PhP 216,444,688,000
Total Liabilities = PhP 199,321,720,000
Net Working Capital = PhP 17,122,968,000
Current Asset to Total Liabilities ratio = 1.09

Current asset exceeds total liabilities.
Graham recommends issues with positive net-working-capital.
This issue passed Benjamin Graham’s net-working-capital test.

* By “net-working-capital”, Graham means current assets (such as cash, marketable securities, and inventories) minus total liabilities (including preferred stock and long-term debt).


GRAHAM’S “BLENDED MULTIPLIER” TEST:

P/E = 8.08
P/B = 1.52
P/E*P/B = 12.26

Stock is reasonably priced.
Graham suggests that the product of P/E and P/B should not exceed 22.5


LIMITATION OF THIS ANALYSIS:
Analysis does not include earnings stability, dividend records, earnings growth and futures earnings (or forward P/E ratio).


REFERENCE:

http://www.pse.com.ph/resource/corpt/20 ... un2012.pdf
http://www.pse.com.ph/resource/corpt/20 ... ec2011.pdf

[Tsupit King]

good pick for value play. there is always a premium price included on the stock price for the industry leaders. i bet you will get a good result on East West....but why it is trading below 20?

[derridamd]

Aboitiz Equity Ventures ( AEV ) continues to buy Union Bank shares :

Aug 17, 2012 250,000 sh 102.50

Aug 30, 2012 100,000 sh 102.00

Sept 7, 2012 164,350 sh 102.00

Sept 11, 2012 151,130 sh 102.00

Sept 11, 2012 1,200,000 sh 104.00

You may check AEV corporate disclosures at PSE website.

[Mr. Banker]

Will put this back on page 1...

UBP looking good today....

[camp_big_falcon]

Mr. Banker, looking good in what way? Volume? Technicals? Valuation? Foreign buying? Thanks.