First Generation Holdings Corporation (FGEN)

[templar]

Obviously, EDC, as a geothermal company, is being RAPED by FGen to get cash to alleviate its own debt problems!

I feel for you buddy, obviously your deep on Fgen stock!

Peace out!

[jcmiras]

Obviously, EDC, as a geothermal company, is being RAPED by FGen to get cash to alleviate its own debt problems!

I feel for you buddy, obviously your deep on Fgen stock!

Peace out!

Really? what's your proof for your claim? Are you "intelligent" enough to prove that the sale is biased to first gen?

When PSALM sold its power plants to private companies to alleviate the NPC's debt, did they also "raped" Aboitiz, First Gen, Suez, and AES?

I`m not holding any first gen stocks - Wala ka lang yata magawa kaya puro suspicion mga sinasabi mo. PEACE.

[analysisparalysis]

Rather than pick an argument (lately there have been many erupting in the Forum. Just shows the strained nerves of all investors), I suggest you look into the history of the forumers postings, prior to arguing specific points. Based on his/her postings history, you will see whether his/her opinions are objective, or subjective in nature. Let's face it, many investors are either anti-Lopez, or anti-Gokongwei or anti-whoever.

[trxtan04]

in my opinion... even if fgen gets a fresh loan or funds, the stock still won't go to astronomical levels because everyone is already waiting for that news. Lahat sell on news yan.... the only way for this to go up is some foreign fund to buy in to it after the news. And it's not doing well din naman... so way too much risk. it's either you get a 10% gain, or 100% loss.

[caleb]

Visayas grid demand outpaces power supply


Despite the completion of a number of projects, demand for electricity in the Visayas grid continues to outpace supply, according to the Department of Energy.

In its 2008 outlook, the agency said the gap between demand and available supply remains a concern because of thin reserves.

“It is in the Visayas where we have some cause for concern, as the electricity demand in the grid had outpaced the available supply as early as 2007,” Energy Sec. Angelo Reyes said.

Based on its Philippine Energy Plan, the department said the grid’s peak demand is projected to hit 1,162 megawatts vis-à-vis its available capacity of 1,277 megawatts this year.

Reyes said the completion of crucial projects as the 200-megawatt Leyte-Cebu Interconnection Uprating Project; the commissioning of seven units of the Panay Diesel Power Plant III and the Northern Negros Geothermal Power Plant, has failed to allow the Visayas grid to meet the 23.4 percent peak reserve requirement.

A number of areas in the region, especially Panay Island, which is located at the tail-end of the grid’s supply chain, has felt the consequences of the slim power reserves.

The private sector is set to put up several coal plants that could help ease the grid’s supply constraints but these would be online only within the next two years or so.

In contrast, the supply outlook for the country’s two other major grids is expected to be more favorable for the year.

System peak in Luzon is expected to reach 6,783 megawatts, still well within the grid’s available capacity of 9,240 megawatts. For Mindanao, the forecast peak demand of 1,322 megawatts is expected to be met by its available capacity of 1,656 megawatts.

The country’s energy plan projects peak demand will grow by an average of 4.4 percent in Luzon, 6.1 percent in the Visayas and 6.5 percent in Mindanao until the year 2014.
--Euan Paulo C. Añonuevo

from manila times today

[jcmiras]

Thanks Caleb for the info.

The Leyte - Cebu line upgrade wont help because you dont have too much power from Leyte to transfer to Cebu in the first place. But if there will be over supply in Luzon, they could export power from Luzon to Leyte then to Cebu through the HVDC line. But in any case, kailan naman kaya matatapos itong Leyte - Cebu. This isn't even included in the latest TDP of TransCo.

Panay Diesel Plants on the other hand wont also help because these are already too old and unrealiable to run. Tsaka ang mahal magpatakbo ng Diesel Plants. Kaya mahal ang kuryente sa Luzon kasi sina-subsidize ng Luzon ang price ng electricity sa Visayas.

Northern Negros, on the other hand is very small (only 49 MW) to support the Demand.

But in anycase, these are all good opportunity sa FGEN/EDC and to Aboitiz, as well.

[caleb]

Visayas to go dark in three months–power producers

Written by Dennis Estopace / Reporter
Tuesday, 21 October 2008 23:56


IN three months, people in the Visayas will experience power shortages as the government remains sluggish in the privatization of National Power Corp. (Napocor) assets, independent power producers said on Monday.

“[In] the whole of the Philippines, it [power outages] would be [in] 2011 and that’s realistic enough if no new plants are built,” said Ernesto Pantangco, president of the Philippine Independent Power Producers Association.

Pantangco told the European Chamber of Commerce last week that the power shortages would severely hit the Panay and Negros island groups.

Besides building new power plants, Pantangco said European businessmen in the country should expect such scenario because of the sluggish privatization of the assets of Napocor.

He added that while 68 percent of the targeted Napocor assets were already privatized, it remains insufficient to push up actual distributed capacity from 8,400 megawatts (MW).

Likewise, the distribution contracts worth 4,221 MW are still controlled by Napocor and traded by the Power Sector Assets and Liabilities Management Corp. (PSALM), Pantangco said.

Since it was established seven years ago, PSALM has assumed all outstanding obligations of Napocor. PSALM also owns the transmission assets and facilities and subtransmission functions and resources of the National Transmission Corp. (Transco).

“Over the last two years we were short [of power] twice in the summer when Transco’s system conked out. The supply was thrown to the province,” Pantangco said.

He added that these shortages emphasized that the actual dependable capacity of all the country’s power plants are way below the energy department’s expectation of 10,600 MW.

The reason, he said, is this: The government ignores two major factors in the supply-and-demand situation. These factors include accepting the deficiency in the actual and expected dependable capacity, and how electricity is traded in the Wholesale Electricity Spot Market.

There also has to be a rationalization of prices, Pantangco said.

“One critical aspect is regulatory stability: The rates must be reflective of true costs.”

Pantangco noted that prices are “artificially set at subsidized rates.”

“We can’t go on like this forever.”

He noted that “subsidized power rates and an unstable regulatory environment deter the start of competition in the power sector.”

The shortages in the Visayas would be followed by Mindanao by end of 2009, according to Pantangco.

In that island group, total demand would hit 1,876 MW while the total supply is expected at only 1,773 MW.

Still, Pantangco said they expect the bidding for two power plants would start January next year.

Hopefully, he said, the country could expect four major players.

[sagupaan]

http://www.pse.com.ph/html/disclosure/p ... 0_FGEN.pdf

First Gen Corporation (FGEN)

Press Release: "Japanese Consortium to invest in Red Vulcan"
22-Oct-2008
Disclosure No:7300-2008

[Fish]

Go Marubeni, complete that double bottom to 19.25.

[jensendkc]

Chart Update on First Gen (FGEN)

http://jensendkc.blogspot.com/2008/10/fgen_22.html

A Bull in a Bear Market
http://jensendkc.blogspot.com/

"The best offense is a good defense."

[templar]

I wonder at what price is Marubeni coming in for EDC via Red Vulcan? Obviously not at Php 9.50 for sure!

[oyietan]

Ok lang basta in terms of dollars ang payment mag 50 to 1 naman na! P 9.50 na nagbayad last year ang Fgen 43 to 1 lang

[templar]

tsk tsk tsk all-time low...a precursor of something really really bad???