Daily Market Notes January 7, 2010

PSEi  3,077.78         UP     37.85
value php  2,523,491,890.00

DOW     1.66 +0.02% 10,573.68
NASDAQ 7.62 -0.33%   2,301.09
S&P 500 0.62 +0.05%   1,137.14

The mood returned quite to normal as the top index leaders were the big caps TEL (2690 up 50, +14.4 on the index) ALI. (up .50, at 11.25, +8.5 on the index)

SMC gains 5 pesos to 72, after declaring .35 cash dividend, and Ongpin's Top Frontier that acquired SMC shall make a tender offer for SMC common share holders in line with existing rules and regulations of the Sec and PSE at a price of P75.00 per share.  They didn't have to, if we cite MER's case of hiding behind the clause of acquiring 35% of the company after one year.  Watch MER.  More noise on the much debated tender.  Watch also FPH.  Now at the lower end of the uptrending channel.  Read more... (227 words, estimated 54 secs reading time)

Longneck’s UCC’s (Useful Chit-Chats) Dec 7 ‘09

 - – -  THE EARLY AM and SUPER LATE EDITION – - -

Today marked the block sale of PX at P21.00 from RVO and co. to MVP and probably raised the speculation bar that Lolo could be next in line. This made today’s newspaper’s headlines as MA/MAB/LC/LCB are all up, higher and actively traded. MA/MAB is even the top gainer/s.

Is this a one-day wonder? Let’s hope Lolo’s dump trucks are out of commission, and are all in the North Pole scooping snow and also preparing gifts for long time believers. If there will be a follow through tomorrow, we don’t even need them to really go UP significantly. All we need is more or at par volume as what transpired today. If this happens, then this should signify accumulation, and may just be the key.  Read more... (213 words, estimated 51 secs reading time)

Daily Market Notes December 7, 2009 Philex 9B block increases turnover

PSEi   3,046.63         DOWN   15.36
VALUE PHP    11,687,741,875.00
VALUE SANS PX BLOCK 2,193,898,075

DOW     22.75 +0.22%  10,388.90
NASDAQ 21.21 +0.98%  2,194.35
S&P 500   6.06 +0.55%  1,105.98

Employers cut 11,000 jobs from their payrolls last month, the Labor Department reported Friday. It was the smallest number of job losses since the start of the recession in December 2007, BUT investors saw this as a chance to sell the good news as the market lost 100 points from its dow's day high of up about 130.  So if it were bad news, a selloff would have occurred as well citing chance to sell on much needed correction.   

It was haywire across all the dollar affected trades with this news.  Confidence on the dollar shortly made for a currency rally, sending gold crashing to 1159, oil to 75, and the dollar retraces briefly.  Read more... (382 words, estimated 1:32 mins reading time)

Daily Market Notes November 27, 2009

PSEi    3,044.97         DOWN   44.85
value php      66,895,317,835.00
value sans smc block:  P2.6B

DOW    30.69 +0.29% 10,464.40
NASDAQ 6.87 +0.32% 2,176.05
S&P 500 4.98 +0.45% 1,110.63

Stocks drop 3-5% around the world as Dubai World, the government investment company burdened by $59 billion of liabilities, sought to delay repayment on much of its debt.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. analysts estimated potential credit losses at HSBC related to Dubai World may be $611 million, and $177 million for Standard Chartered, according to a research report released today. The impact on both banks will be “manageable,” the analysts wrote.  Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc., Japan’s second-largest bank by market value, may be owed at least $225 million by Dubai World, according to people familiar with the matter.
Dubai borrowed $80 billion in a four-year construction boom that transformed the sheikhdom into a regional tourism and financial hub. It suffered the world’s steepest property slump in the global recession, with home prices dropping 50 percent from their 2008 peak, according to Deutsche Bank AG.  Read more... (523 words, 2 images, estimated 2:06 mins reading time)

Some charts : web

While everybody's eyes are on ISM, let's talk about WEB which no one else has anyway.  Just the other day I showed my friend what the chart of WEB looks like and I was telling him how it would hit the trendline soon.  Well, this chart is about a day or two old, and we've in fact hit this trendline.

Notice that everytime this trendline is hit, WEB appears to have diminished buyers and more sellers than usual before bouncing.  The breakout from last month's ascending triangle shows a 5 peso move from 15.75-16 which points to around 21 if this trendline bounce occurs next week.

I will stake longneck's life that it will.

Daily Market Notes October 15, 2009

PSEi 2,942.79 UP 12.09
value php 3,234,684,796.20
over 4B php in volume desperately needed to bring us past 3000!

DOW 144.80 +1.47% 10,015.86
NASDAQ 32.34 +1.51% 2,172.23
S&P 500 18.83 +1.75% 1,092.02

Intel beating estimates but giving a rosy outlook, plus JPMorgan smashing estimates help keep the DJIA rally well above 1% for most of their trading day, and keeping their head above the 10k water level by closing.  The dollar slid to the lowest level since August 2008 and Treasuries fell.   The rally also was boosted by data showing retail sales falling less than economists forecast last month.  Read more... (336 words, 2 images, estimated 1:21 mins reading time)