Longneck’s UCC’s (Useful Chit-Chats) Dec 7 ‘09

 - – -  THE EARLY AM and SUPER LATE EDITION – - -

Today marked the block sale of PX at P21.00 from RVO and co. to MVP and probably raised the speculation bar that Lolo could be next in line. This made today’s newspaper’s headlines as MA/MAB/LC/LCB are all up, higher and actively traded. MA/MAB is even the top gainer/s.

Is this a one-day wonder? Let’s hope Lolo’s dump trucks are out of commission, and are all in the North Pole scooping snow and also preparing gifts for long time believers. If there will be a follow through tomorrow, we don’t even need them to really go UP significantly. All we need is more or at par volume as what transpired today. If this happens, then this should signify accumulation, and may just be the key.  Read more... (213 words, estimated 51 secs reading time)

Daily Market Notes December 7, 2009 Philex 9B block increases turnover

PSEi   3,046.63         DOWN   15.36
VALUE PHP    11,687,741,875.00
VALUE SANS PX BLOCK 2,193,898,075

DOW     22.75 +0.22%  10,388.90
NASDAQ 21.21 +0.98%  2,194.35
S&P 500   6.06 +0.55%  1,105.98

Employers cut 11,000 jobs from their payrolls last month, the Labor Department reported Friday. It was the smallest number of job losses since the start of the recession in December 2007, BUT investors saw this as a chance to sell the good news as the market lost 100 points from its dow's day high of up about 130.  So if it were bad news, a selloff would have occurred as well citing chance to sell on much needed correction.   

It was haywire across all the dollar affected trades with this news.  Confidence on the dollar shortly made for a currency rally, sending gold crashing to 1159, oil to 75, and the dollar retraces briefly.  Read more... (382 words, estimated 1:32 mins reading time)

Daily Market Notes December 4 , 2009 of ISM and ISM

PSEi   3,061.99         DOWN   28.92
value php     2,376,795,480.00

DOW    86.53 -0.83% 10,366.15
NASDAQ 11.89 -0.54% 2,173.14
S&P 500   9.32 -0.84% 1,099.9

The (ISM) Institute for Supply Management’s index of non- manufacturing businesses in the U.S. — almost 90 percent of the world’s largest economy — fell to 48.7 from 50.6 in October. A reading below 50 indicates a contraction. A report on U.S. unemployment today may show the rate remain at a 26-year high of 10.2 percent, according to a Bloomberg survey.  Bank of America's plan to pay back the government $45 billion was met with muted response.  

Local stocks were back to their anemic usual self without the inflated value turnover for CPM FLI MER PX.  Read more... (409 words, estimated 1:38 mins reading time)

Daily Market Notes December 3, 2009

PSEi   3,090.91         DOWN   29.05
value php     2,610,103,070.00
PSEi true value turnover exposed.

DOW    18.90 -0.18% 10,452.68
NASDAQ 9.22 +0.42% 2,185.03
S&P 500 0.38 +0.03% 1,109.24

The Fed beige book reveals that the stimulus plan is working and that the economy is on track for growth.  This is saving equity markets from deeper corrections.

Asian markets were mixed, with Jappan's Nikkei as the biggest gainer on their lower yen.

PX drops 1.75 to 17.75, and made up for 15 lost psei points on the news that Walter Brown and Robert Ongpin and DBP sell their combined 9.24% shares in PX to MVP's First Pac group at 21 per share.  The latter now has a 40% stake acquired during the period of over one year.  The next biggest shareholder of PX is SSS again with a 22% stake.   With the same cast of characters, expect SSS Chair Neri to do a  Winston Garcia to possibly insist on getting bought out at 21 again via tender, like the latter is asking with Meralco "to protect government investments".  Read more... (318 words, 1 image, estimated 1:16 mins reading time)

Some charts : web

While everybody's eyes are on ISM, let's talk about WEB which no one else has anyway.  Just the other day I showed my friend what the chart of WEB looks like and I was telling him how it would hit the trendline soon.  Well, this chart is about a day or two old, and we've in fact hit this trendline.

Notice that everytime this trendline is hit, WEB appears to have diminished buyers and more sellers than usual before bouncing.  The breakout from last month's ascending triangle shows a 5 peso move from 15.75-16 which points to around 21 if this trendline bounce occurs next week.

I will stake longneck's life that it will.